The most recent poll released by The New York Times reveals a true head-to-head in the race for the presidency of the republic in the United States.

The study was conducted by the firm Siena at the request of the New York newspaper and shows that in voting preference, things are at 46% for Kamala Harris and 47% for Donald Trump.

It is worth using an analogy with football to understand what is happening: will it be necessary to request the VAR to know who will be the winner?

This is not the first time this has happened. Let us remember the election of George Bush in 2000.

The initial analysis indicates on the one hand that the launch of the official candidacy of Kamala Harris helped the Democratic Party to level the playing field, since it had lost ground in the polls after the first debate between current President Joe Biden and candidate Donald Trump.

On the other hand, it can be said that the two assassination attempts against the Republican candidate have not weighed and have not become a turning point for electoral preferences. Nor have the exaggerations that Trump has launched in recent weeks been useful to move his electoral bases.

In short, everything indicates that the political climate is still very polarized.

However, where there has been a change is in the betting world. According to the website Polymarket, today the bettors are in favor of Harris with 52% against 47% for Trump. The difference is higher if you look at the popular vote, with 77% favorability among bettors who think Harris will win in the popular vote, while only 22% believe Trump will.

In any case, the greatest tension seems to be in the Republican Party.

The New York Times reported that these are not quiet times in the Trump campaign: “Even by the standards of a head-spinning presidential campaign, Donald J. Trump’s campaign over the past two weeks has been tumultuous. (...) A period that began when Mr. Trump pushed baseless claims from the debate stage that immigrants in Ohio were stealing and eating household pets ended with him facing attacks over his support of the Republican candidate for governor in North Carolina, who referred to himself as a ‘black Nazi’ on the message board of a pornographic website.”

To this we must add the episode of Taylor Swift, one of the most popular artists in the world, who gave her support to Kamala Harris, to which Trump responded by saying "I hate Taylor Swift" and another false start when he assured that if he lost the election, Jews would have a lot to do with it, heightening concerns about the anti-Semitic messages in the middle of the electoral process.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has decided to distance herself and as everything seems to indicate that there will be no new televised debate, the best strategy seems to be to let Trump fall alone in his own mistakes.

However, what will make a real difference is what happens in key states such as Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina that can turn the results around in the electoral college vote count, which is what really matters for the presidential election.

With less than two months to go before the elections, nothing has been said yet and the campaigns are still working hard to convince more voters of their proposals.

We are entering the final stretch of the presidential election in the country in the midst of much uncertainty. And polarization.