As the 2024 presidential race heats up, Vice President Kamala Harris is focusing her efforts on winning the Latino vote—a demographic that has been pivotal in Democratic victories but has recently shown signs of shifting toward the Republican Party. Historically, Democrats have relied on winning around 64% or more of the Latino vote to secure the presidency. However, recent polls indicate that Harris is polling in the mid- to upper-50% range, suggesting that while she is performing better than President Biden did earlier this year, there is still significant ground to cover.

In 2020, Joe Biden secured approximately 59% of the Latino vote, a noticeable decline from previous Democratic candidates, which contributed to a narrower margin of victory over Donald Trump. As Harris steps into the spotlight, there is cautious optimism among Democratic strategists that she can reverse this trend. Carlos Odio, a researcher specializing in Latino public opinion, noted that Harris’s candidacy appears to be regaining support among Latinos in key swing states like Nevada. Meanwhile, Matt Barreto, Harris’s Latino pollster, points to her growing favorability among young and undecided Latino voters as a positive sign for her campaign.

Despite these encouraging indicators, Harris faces a significant challenge in mobilizing the Latino electorate. The Biden administration’s previous efforts, including grassroots outreach, Spanish-language advertising, and field offices in Latino communities, yielded mixed results. As Harris inherits Biden’s campaign infrastructure, the effectiveness of continuing these strategies remains in question. Democrats have long viewed Latinos as a cornerstone of a multiracial coalition that could secure the party’s dominance, but shifting allegiances and diverse perspectives within the Latino community are complicating this assumption.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump’s campaign has adopted a different approach, focusing less on Latino surrogates and more on Trump himself as the primary messenger. This strategy has resonated with certain segments of the Latino population, particularly those who support his economic policies and stricter immigration enforcement. However, Trump’s divisive rhetoric and policies on immigration continue to alienate many Latino voters, creating an opening for Harris to make inroads.

As Harris continues her campaign, her ability to connect with Latino voters, particularly in battleground states, will be crucial. The upcoming election could hinge on whether she can not only retain but also expand the Latino support that has traditionally been a key to Democratic success.